The riots in Uttar Pradesh’s Muzaffarnagar district, in which 62 Indians died (42 Muslim and 20 Hindu) will accrue to the benefit of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The reason that the rioting will work to the advantage of the BJP has to do with the nature of both riots and voting. Community participation is a fact of the Indian riot, just as it is of voting. It is a disturbing fact, but it is true.
And we can demonstrate this through the events in Gujarat. When courts a couple of years ago finally began to convict the murderers of Gujarat’s 2002 riots, a remarkable fact emerged, which could be observed in the names of the convicted men. All the nine men guilty of murdering three Dawoodi Bohras in Malva Bhagol were Patels. All the 21 men convicted of a large massacre in the same village of Odh were found to be Patels. In Sardarpura village of Mehsana district, 31 men were jailed for the murder of 11 children, 17 women and 5 men. Of these murderers, 30 were Patels.
The Gujarati Hindutva movement is led by men like Praveen Togadia (who is a Patel) and Babu Bajrangi, also Patel. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad in the state was controlled by Jaideep Patel.
On the other hand the Muslims will be terrified by the thought of Narendra Modi coming to power at the center. The first thing they will do is abandon Mayawati‘s Bahujan Samaj Party, which they have been voting for, because it is pragmatic and can ally with the BJP.